MEMPHIS, Tenn — New models show COVID-19 peaking in the Mid-south in mid to late April. How will it affect our hospitals? How many lives are predicted to be lost? The University of Washington crunched the numbers.
According to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the coronavirus will peak in Tennessee on April 19th. The report says more than 15,618 hospital beds will be needed. Tennessee will have just over 7,806 beds available, which is about half of what is needed.
When it comes to intensive care beds, it says 2,428 will be needed, but only 629 will be available, leaving a shortage of almost 1800 intensive care beds in Tennessee. During that time, almost 1943 ventilators will also be needed.
When it comes to deaths, the University of Washington says Tennessee will peak at 165 COVID-19 deaths for the day of April 20th in Tennessee. It estimates that more than 3,422 in Tennessee will lose their lives from COVID-19 by August 4th.
Mississippi's peak is expected on April 21st. It's projected Mississippi will need around 3,392 beds on that day, and they have enough - so there won't be a general bed shortage. But there will be a shortage of intensive care beds on April 21. It’s estimated 512 ICU beds will be needed, but just 340 will be available. That means there will be a shortage of 172. 918 deaths are expected in Mississippi from COVID-19, including 34 per day during the peak.
Arkansas is projected be the last state in the Mid-South to reach its peak on April 26th. According to the University of Washington's figures, there won't be a shortage of hospital or intensive care unit beds - and at its peak on April 26th, it's estimated 21 people will die that day of COVID-19, and 619 people will lose their lives from the virus by August 4th.
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Coronavirus in Context:
The symptoms of coronavirus are similar to the flu or a bad cold. Symptoms include a fever, cough and shortness of breath, according to the Centers for Disease Control.
Most healthy people will have mild symptoms. A study of more than 72,000 patients by the Centers for Disease Control in China showed 80-percent of the cases there were mild.
But infections can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death, according to the World Health Organization. Older people with underlying health conditions are most at risk.
The CDC believes symptoms may appear anywhere from two to 14 days after being exposed.
Lower your risk
- Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
- Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
- If you are 60 or over and have an underlying health condition such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes or respiratory illnesses like asthma or COPD, the World Health Organization advises you to try to avoid crowds or places where you might interact with people who are sick.