MEMPHIS, Tenn. — As Tornado Alley shifts, the Mid-South is starting to see a greater frequency in tornadoes - Memphis, with its aging housing stock and lack of public shelters, is particularly vulnerable.
As a warmer Earth creates more favorable conditions for tornadoes to form, the environment in the Mid-South and its neighboring region have become more susceptible for tornado formation.
Multiple studies have detailed how the area of the traditional Tornado Alley is seeing fewer of these storms, while states like Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas are seeing more.
“We are seeing ingredients that are necessary for tornado development be more centered in this part of the country,” Todd Beal, warning coordination meteorologist from the National Weather Service said.
Ingredients for tornado development, like an increase in moisture and thunderstorms developments, making the number of days in which the conditions for tornado development occur are becoming more common.
As a result, people in the Memphis metro-area are now at a 25% greater risk of tornado threats, Walker Ashley, a geographer at Northern Illinois University, told ABC News.
The (nonexistent) plan
Memphis City Councilmember Jeff Warren said that people have started realizing the area is having larger storms and more frequent tornadic activity compared to previous decades.
But currently there is no state, county or citywide plan to address this.
“I think all of us understand that this is just another manifestation of climate change,” Warren said. “We’re all going to have to develop our own plans on how we safely deal with these increasing storms and risk for tornadoes.”
Warren says part of that solution comes with new developments. Houses that, when built, will be better equipped. Moving forward, Warren said citizens need to start bringing weather into consideration when building new homes.
The problem with this however is that the majority of the working class in the city lives in an “aging housing stock,” and the upgrades needed costs money that many don’t have, according to Austin Harrison, assistant professor of Urban Studies at Rhodes College.
Warren said it’s a reason there needs to be a push for upward economic mobility and higher paying jobs, as well as a push for a greener city.
“Some of that is driving less, and some of that is raising the temperature on your air conditioner,” Warren said. “All of these are things that each one of us has the power to do, and we just need to be more cognizant of it.”
The Housing Crisis in Memphis
Harrison’s research focuses on housing policy, structural disinvestment and community development in Memphis, which he says has a shortage of livable, quality properties.
“There are many people that are living in deteriorated, dilapidated, aging housing stock,” Harrison said. “If [the answer is to] build new homes with certain amenities, that’s likely going to increase the value, [and] going to make it harder to finance.
“And this is at a time where we are already seeing the largest growth in [the] Black-white homeownership gap.”
Home ownership among Black Americans dropped nationally almost 10% in the past 20 years, according to the National Association of Real Estate Brokers (NAREB). In a March 2023 report, the rate among Black Americans falls behind significantly with 44%, compared to white Americans at 72.7%. But in Memphis, the Black rate is even lower with a 34% rate.
Most Memphians are renters, and landlords have little incentive to upgrade their properties to make them more weather resilient, which Harrison describes as perpetuating the vulnerability of working class Memphians to future weather events.
“Most Memphians are facing landlords that are unwilling, based on their business model, to make meaningful structural repairs,” Harrison said. “You have people treat homes like real estate, not like shelter.”
Due to this, it is the most vulnerable populations of Memphis who are the most at risk of being impacted by the realities of climate change.
This does not mean that developers are not interested in building stronger homes, but like with green developments and newer homes, certain amenities like special basements or safe rooms come with an additional price that makes it harder for people of a lower income to access.
This is just one of many factors that make Memphis particularly vulnerable to tornadoes.
A study by Vincent Marshall Brown at the University of Tennessee (a current Geography assistant professor at Louisiana State University), explored Memphis’ relationship with tornadoes, compared to Nashville and Knoxville, stating that while Nashville reported the most tornadoes between 1950 and 2013, it was Memphis who reported the most casualties.
Memphis also saw a quarter of its tornadoes outside of spring, and during the winter - when tornadoes are twice as likely to kill as they usually occur at night, according to Brown’s study.
NWS's Beal also alluded to this issue, saying that night tornadoes are a particular concern as they come when people are sleeping.
“We are in a vulnerable part of the country for severe storms and tornadoes,” Beal said. “All Mid-Southerns in the area, everybody is prone to tornadoes in this part of the country but we also have a large number of folks who live in manufactured homes and apartments as well.”
Although physical factors, like strength of the storm, have major determinants of the dangers of a tornado, socioeconomic factors like income, race and housing type are also significant factors in tornado deaths.
A 2023 study detailing the shift of Tornado Alley briefs on how counties with a higher income have fewer related deaths. One of their cited studies, “Dimensions of poverty, housing quality and tornado impacts” from Michigan State University, concluded that counties with a higher income have fewer “tornado-induced” deaths, while greater poverty rates makes the population more vulnerable, increasing its disaster impact. Similarly, the study suggests that income inequality “exacerbates” the impact of the disaster.
Counties with more government spending on public safety also have fewer deaths. Both studies mention how local government investment in welfare and safety mitigate their residents' vulnerability.
Harrison said that there needs to be a structural change in the housing market and it needs to start with a government response and partnership with community organizations.
“If we continue to rely on individual action and market action, and we think that markets themselves are going to fix these problems, we’re going to be sitting here 10 to 15 years asking the same questions, coming up with the same ideas and not getting anywhere,” Harrison said.
Seeking shelter when there are no public shelters
While the National Weather Service receives the information on where shelters are located, cities and counties are responsible for designating safe spaces and shelters, according to Beal.
Tornado and other types of shelters might be common in places like Kansas, within the traditional Tornado Alley path, yet Memphis has a severe lack of shelters, with Shelby County only having one public shelter in Arlington.
For comparison, in Mississippi, DeSoto County has six shelters and Lafayette County has 19.
For those who live in apartments, mobile homes, or in a place that was recently damaged by a storm the best thing to do is go to a shelter. But a shelter doesn’t always have to be a public one.
ABC24’s Chief Meteorologist Danielle Moss says Memphians should also consider going to a family member’s house. For those who live in an apartment complex, the leasing office might open the office to shelter in. Apartments on the lower-floors are safer, so asking a neighbor is a good alternative as well.
The key, Moss says, is to be on a lower floor, away from windows, “find somewhere safe and somewhere where you feel comfortable that's not on the top floor.”
The earlier you act, the better.
For tornadoes and for extreme weather situations, meteorologists usually have two alerts to follow: warning and watch. Warning entails that a tornado could develop, while a watch is issued when the tornado has already been seen or one is coming.
Watches can be broad in time and space but a watch is still the best time to act.
“Sometimes the watch could take hours but that's the time when you prepare,” said Moss. “When a warning is issued you only have 25 to 30 minutes, or that storm could be on top of you, so you don't want to wait until the last minute.”
In other words, it is best to be at your safe place by the time a watch is issued.
Additionally, the National Weather Service recommends having multiple ways to receive information, like having a charged cell phone but also having a weather radio.
“Just make sure that people have numerous ways to receive severe weather warnings,” said Beal. Adding that relying on tornado sirens is not ideal because sirens are meant to alert people who are outdoors.
Lastly, the most important thing people can do is to stay informed.
“It's about building resilient communities,” said Beal. “To make sure that people are informed and know how to get weather information and what to do when there is severe weather.”
