MEMPHIS, Tenn. — It may be mid-August, and it might feel like the low 100s outside, but it seems like the perfect time to talk about some cooler weather.
This past week, the Farmers' Almanac published their winter outlook for this upcoming winter. While this can be fun to look at, especially during these hot days of summer, there are some more accurate predictions from the Climate Prediction Center we can look at as well to get a better idea of what the Winter can look like.
Looking at the forecast for 2024-2025, the Mid-South and Tennessee is expected to see a cold, wet, and white winter ahead.
While this might be exciting to see, the Farmers' Almanac is often wishful thinking rather than a real forecast.
Last winter, we saw multiple days below freezing straight along with a decent snowstorm in the month of January. Memphis ended up with above-average snowfall with many locations in the metro reaching 4-6"+. Temperatures for the season ended up being above average even with this frigidly cold week.
This takes us to the accuracy of the Farmers' Almanac Winter prediction. Over the past 5 years, it has been correct only in one winter. In the winter of 2020-2021 we were colder than average and saw 10.3 inches of snow in Memphis which was well above average; conditions that the Farmers' Almanac predicted.
Results like this are the outlier. More often than not, our winter conditions don't line up with the Farmers' Almanac.
While winter is a few seasons away, the Climate Prediction Center does put out seasonal outlooks this far out. The forecast for this winter will likely change, but we can see the current thinking of the experts at this time.
Looking at temperatures right now, the CPC is expecting warmer than normal conditions in the southern United States. There is the potential that we could be entering La Nina this Winter which would favor wetter and warmer conditions in the Mid-South if you look at historical weather patterns.
Make sure to check back in later this fall, when we will have a better idea of what this winter may look like for us here in Memphis and the Mid-South!