MEMPHIS, Tenn. — In Memphis and the Mid-South, we are experiencing very warm and dry weather for this time of the year. As of writing this article, 2 more days this week will get close to record daily highs. This warm weather, while not uncommon for this time of the year is also becoming more frequent in our warming world.
Our partners at Climate Central show an overall warming trend for the Fall season across the entire United States. This is something we see across all seasons given current trends. Locally here in Memphis since 1970, we have added about 11 more days like the ones we are experiencing this week thanks to all of these changes.
If we take a step back and look at the global picture we can see a dominant trend over the past year. Starting in the 2nd half of 2023 the Earth was recording record warm months, this trend continued into the beginning of this year and set the stage for unprecedented heat. 2023 set the record for the warmest year in the Modern Era. This looks to be dethroned by this year which has held the #1 warmest year to date for the entire year so far.
Experts at the Copernicus Programme in Europe which is similar to NOAA here in the US have stated that it is "almost certain" at this point that 2024 ends up as the hottest year on record. NOAA has yet to put out its monthly briefing as the National Center for Environmental Information is located in Asheville, NC, and was impacted by Hurricane Helene.
More locally, the Climate Prediction Center has forecast that much of the United States will be above average in temperatures heading into the end of the year and starting off 2025.
Whether or not 2025 will once again set records is yet to be seen. NOAA is expecting La Nina to develop going into this winter. This typically creates a cool pool of water in the Eastern Pacific which can lower overall global temperatures. Of course, only time will tell if this has an impact and can offset the trend of global land heat that we have seen over the past decade.