MEMPHIS, Tenn. — We have been incredibly dry in the Mid-South recently. Memphis is potentially on track to see a rainless calendar month for only the 3rd time ever, but how did we get here?
Looking at the historical normal, our wet season is in the Spring while our driest months typically are August, September, and October. 2024 is no exception to this as we have seen some of our driest weather of the year.
Surprisingly during this time we have already picked up 14.85 inches of rain but at the same time, over 8 out of 10 days have been dry during this stretch. How could this be? It is because most of the rain we have received over these months has been from tropical remnants. Francine in late August and Helene in September.
We currently sit at 25 days of no rain in Memphis, this is nearing the records in the 30s. Interestingly all of which ended in the month of October. During this 25 day stretch, the Mid-South has seen high pressure dominate the weather. This has been a key contributor when it comes to the lack of rain over this time.
If we look at the overall pattern, we are what is called call zonal flow, this typically corresponds with very quiet weather. This begins to change at the end of the month when we see a ridge build in. This feature normally is associated with warm and dry weather. We have to wait until the beginning of November to potentially get a cold front that could bring us some rain.
The Weather Prediction Center expects some rain out of this but nothing too impressive when it comes to the amount of rain at this time.