MEMPHIS, Tenn. — By now you have probably heard that Tornado Alley is moving. Tornado Alley is the name given to the most active part of the country when it comes to storms that produce strong and violent tornadoes. According to a study published in 2018, this area has been moving for several reasons from its traditional location in the Great Plains to more of a focus in the Southeast including here in the Mid-South.
ABC24 has already covered this shift and the challenges it will pose for the Mid-South and Memphis as we continue to see a pattern of strong storms. Looking at this trend, our partners at Climate Central have graphed the data from the aforementioned study that shows the Mid-South as the bullseye for change in days that could lead to tornadic weather. This is why the shift has been in conversations for a few years now.
Advancing this conversation, we can now look into what the future may look like as our world continues to warm. A newer research project done by scientists at the University of Northern Illinois shows how Climate Change can impact our stormiest of days across the US.
The team found that the results were mixed with some locations either staying similar or even seeing a reduction in stormy days when moderate and extreme climate change were modeled out.
In the Southeast and specifically Memphis, the story was clear. Under this study, stormy days greatly increased the warmer the climate was. This is shown by the red shading over much of Tennessee extending out toward northern Georgia.
If we take a closer look at the study and the numbers that were produced for Memphis, we can get actual numbers for the increase in stormy days under extreme climate change conditions. The increase in heat and moisture under these patterns led to over 7 days more including stormy weather over the Mid-South; a very large increase.
If we break down these data points by season we are able to see which season has the biggest impact in the modeling. Spring is the largest severe weather season in the Mid-South and it turns out that this would be the season that would see the largest increase in stormy days. Summer remained mostly unchanged with Witner and Fall also seeing some increase by about a day.
What is the takeaway from all of this? It continues to be the same thing with a lot of these climate change stories. Our world is changing, and very quickly. That means conditions and weather you saw just a few decades ago may no longer be normal going into the future. While this study is just one out of plenty out there it does give us some insight in what we could possibly expect with severe weather in the decades to come.
