MEMPHIS, Tenn. — As Election Day nears closer and closer, voters in Memphis and the Mid-South may want to grab the umbrella or the rain jacket before they head to the polls.
The latest ABC24 forecast shows high rain chances with some thunderstorms likely through the day on Tuesday.
Voters that want to dodge the rain may have the best luck lining up to vote before lunchtime. While showers are possible at any point Tuesday, the best chance of rain won't arrive until the afternoon and the evening.
Polls in Tennessee and Mississippi will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., while polls in Arkansas will open at 7:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m.
What could rain mean for Election Day turnout?
Rain and snow on election days typically lead to lower voter turnout, according to researchers in a study published in the Journal of Politics.
In this study, researchers looked at the effect of weather on voter turnout in 14 U.S. presidential elections. They used GIS interpolations and meteorological data from more than 22,000 weather stations to provide Election Day estimates of rain and snow for each U.S. county. During unpleasant weather, they found that voter turnout decreased and this benefited the Republican party.
"We find that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost 0.5%. Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party's vote share," the authors wrote.
In Shelby County, since 1968, rainy Election Days have led to a 3% to 5% drop in voter turnout on average.
A study released in 2018 by Dartmouth College found that rain may have led to some voters changing their minds.
The study that was published in American Politics Research examined electoral data and accounted for how voter psychology may impact elections.
“Our study suggests that weather conditions may affect people’s decisions on not only whether to vote but also who they vote for,” said co-author Yusaku Horiuchi, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.
Their research uncovered that at least 1% of voters in the U.S. who would have voted for a Democrat, instead voted for a Republican on rainy election days.
The study was based on statistical analysis.
Here's what the authors noted about the change in partisan preference:
"The change in party preference may be attributed to a psychological behavior, where voters may be more averse to risk during poor weather conditions. Earlier studies have identified a correlation between ideological and political orientations in which conservatives or Republicans tend to be more averse to risk than liberals or Democrats," study officials wrote.
For more details on area races, polling information, and live coverage, visit abc24.com/elections.
WUSA9 contributed to this report.