MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Memphis isn't a city known for wintry weather, but the Mid-South usually gets at least a few chances of snow (or worse, ice) through the winter months.
Since the 1920s, Memphis has averaged about 3 inches of snow each year. But what can we expect this year?
First of all, you should know that seasonal weather outlooks are hard to pin down. Weather isn't an exact science, and there really isn't any way to determine exactly what will happen at any time, especially many months out.
However, certain conditions around the globe can give forecasters some kind of an idea of what the weather trends will be like going into a season.
To get a clue about what kind of winter Memphis may be in for, we actually have to start all of the way out in the Pacific Ocean.
Strong El Niño expected this winter
Forecasters actually look at water temperature in the Pacific Ocean along the equator to get an idea of what kind of weather a season may hold in the United States.
Warmer water temperatures in this region, also known as El Niño, tend to direct the jet stream to dig into the southern United States, bringing rounds of colder weather and better chances for snowy weather.
Cooler waters in this area, known as La Niña, keep the jet stream further north which usually keeps the Southern United States more dry and mild in the winter. A La Niña pattern has been in place since 2021, and Memphis has seen less snowfall than normal in the last 2 winters.
2023-2024 Winter Forecast for Memphis
With a strong El Niño pattern expected to continue into the winter, odds are Memphis will see more of a back-and-forth winter, with several short blasts of colder weather and stretches of milder weather in between.
With several rounds of colder air expected through winter, the chances increase for us to see more snowfall than usual this winter in the Memphis area. Of course, that all depends on if we get a storm system to pass through to line up with that colder air.
There's no way to determine exactly how much snow we'll get, but this El Niño pattern should give us at least a few opportunities for wintry weather.
The last similarly strong El Niño winter was in 2009-2010, when Memphis saw a total of 6.8" of snow.
As for this winter? We'll all be waiting to see.