MEMPHIS, Tenn. — 2024 is on track to be one of the hottest years globally, this heat looks like it will come to a peak this summer if the latest forecast from NOAA is correct.
The 3 month outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was published on May 16th. In this outlook the agency maps out the chances of cooler and warmer conditions along with precipitation outlooks.
According to this outlook, almost the entire United States can expect a likely warmer than normal Summer. The Four Corners region has the highest chance of seeing hotter than normal conditions along with Texas, Louisiana, and New England. The Northern Plain States have an equal chance of seeing a warmer or cooler Summer.
Precipitation will potentially be higher in the Eastern US. The development of La Nina along with the predictions of a very active hurricane season ahead could lead to some higher rainfall amounts especially where any storms make landfall during the later Summer months.
Locally in Memphis, this forecast calls for a 43 percent chance that the Mid-South city sees a warmer than average Summer while there is a 37 percent chance that the Summer season ends up wetter than normal.
Memphis typically sees its first 90 degree day around May 24th and while the forecast looks like it could get close to that at the beginning of next week, there is no threat of abnormal heat in the forecast in the near future.
2 years ago the Mid-South saw an extreme summer with Memphis recording 18 days above 100 degrees which ranked 3rd most for this type of heat in the city.